Tài chính doanh nghiệp - Chapter 8: Stock valuation

T8.1 Chapter OutlineChapter 8Stock ValuationChapter Organization8.1 Common Stock Valuation8.2 Common Stock Features8.3 Preferred Stock Features8.3 Stock Market Reporting8.4 Summary and ConclusionsCLICK MOUSE OR HIT SPACEBAR TO ADVANCEIrwin/McGraw-Hill copyright © 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd.T8.2 Common Stock Cash Flows and the Fundamental Theory of ValuationIn 1938, John Burr Williams postulated what has become the fundamental theory of valuation: The value today of any financial asset equals the present value of all of its future cash flows.For common stocks, this implies the following: D1 P1 D2 P2 P0 = + and P1 = + (1 + R)1 (1 + R)1 (1 + R)1 (1 + R)1 substituting for P1 gives D1 D2 P2 P0 = + + . Continuing to substitute, we obtain (1 + R)1 (1 + R)2 (1 + R)2 D1 D2 D3 D4 P0 = + + + + (1 + R)1 (1 + R)2 (1 + R)3 (1 + R)4T8.3 Common Stock Valuation: The Zero Growth CaseAccording to the fundamental theory of value, the value of a financial asset at any point in time equals the present value of all future dividends. If all future dividends are the same, the present value of the dividend stream constitutes a perpetuity. The present value of a perpetuity is equal to C/r or, in this case, D1/R.Question: Cooper, Inc. common stock currently pays a $1.00 dividend, which is expected to remain constant forever. If the required return on Cooper stock is 10%, what should the stock sell for today?Answer: P0 = $1/.10 = $10.Question: Given no change in the variables, what will the stock be worth in one year?T8.3 Common Stock Valuation: The Zero Growth Case (concluded)Answer: One year from now, the value of the stock, P1, must be equal to the present value of all remaining future dividends. Since the dividend is constant, D2 = D1 , and P1 = D2/R = $1/.10 = $10. In other words, in the absence of any changes in expected cash flows (and given a constant discount rate), the price of a no-growth stock will never change. Put another way, there is no reason to expect capital gains income from this stock.T8.4 Common Stock Valuation: The Constant Growth CaseIn reality, investors generally expect the firm (and the dividends it pays) to grow over time. How do we value a stock when each dividend differs from the one preceding it?As long as the rate of change from one period to the next, g, is constant, we can apply the growing perpetuity model: D1 D2 D3 D0(1+g)1 D0(1+g)2 D0(1+g)3 P0 = + + + = + + + ... (1 + R)1 (1 + R)2 (1 + R)3 (1 + R)1 (1 + R)2 (1 + R)3 D0(1 + g) D1 P0 = = . R - g R- gNow assume that D1 = $1.00, r = 10%, but dividends are expected to increase by 5% annually. What should the stock sell for today?T8.4 Common Stock Valuation: The Constant Growth Case (concluded)Answer: The equilibrium value of this constant-growth stock is D1 $1.00 = = $20 R - g .10 - .05 Question: What would the value of the stock be if the growth rate were only 3%?Answer: D1 $1.00 = = $14.29. R - g .10 - .03 Why does a lower growth rate result in a lower value? Stay tuned. T8.5 Stock Price Sensitivity to Dividend Growth, g02%4%6%8%10%50454035302520Stock price ($)Dividend growth rate, gD1 = $1Required return, R, = 12%15105T8.6 Stock Price Sensitivity to Required Return, r6%8%10%12%14%100908070605040Stock price ($)Required return, RD1 = $1Dividend growth rate, g, = 5%302010T8.7 Common Stock Valuation - The Nonconstant Growth CaseFor many firms (especially those in new or high-tech industries), dividends are low but are expected to grow rapidly. As product markets mature, the dividend growth rate is then expected to slow to a “steady state” rate. How should stocks such as these be valued?Answer: We return to the fundamental theory of value - the value today equals the present value of all future cash flows.Put another way, the nonconstant growth model suggests that P0 = present value of dividends in the nonconstant growth period(s) + present value of dividends in the “steady state” period.T8.8 Chapter 8 Quick Quiz -- Part 1 of 3Suppose a stock has just paid a $5 per share dividend. The dividend is projected to grow at 5% per year indefinitely. If the required return is 9%, then the price today is _____ ? P0 = D1/(R - g) = $5  ( ____ )/( ____ -____ ) = $5.25/.04 = $_____ per share What will the price be in a year? Pt = Dt+1/(R - g) P1 = D___ /(R - g) = ($____  1.05)/(.09 - .05) = $137.8125By what percentage does P1 exceed P0? Why?T8.8 Chapter 8 Quick Quiz -- Part 1 of 3 (concluded)Suppose a stock has just paid a $5 per share dividend. The dividend is projected to grow at 5% per year indefinitely. If the required return is 9%, then the price today is _____ ? P0 = D1/(R - g) = $5  ( 1.05 )/( .09 - .05 ) = $5.25/.04 = $131.25 per share What will the price be in a year? Pt = Dt+1/(R - g) P1 = D 2 /(R - g) = ($5.25  1.05)/(.09 - .05) = $137.8125By what percentage does P1 exceed P0? Why? P1 exceeds P0 by 5% -- the capital gains yield.T8.9 Chapter 8 Quick Quiz -- Part 2 of 3Find the required return: Suppose a stock has just paid a $5 per share dividend. The dividend is projected to grow at 5% per year indefinitely.  If the stock sells today for $65 5/8, what is the required return? P0 = D1/(R - g) (R - g) = D1/P0 R = D1/P0 + g = $5.25/$65.625 + .05 = dividend yield (_____) + capital gains yield (_____) = ____T8.9 Chapter 8 Quick Quiz -- Part 2 of 3Find the required return: Suppose a stock has just paid a $5 per share dividend. The dividend is projected to grow at 5% per year indefinitely.  If the stock sells today for $65 5/8, what is the required return? P0 = D1/(R - g) (R - g) = D1/P0 R = D1/P0 + g = $5.25/$65.625 + .05 = dividend yield ( .08 ) + capital gains yield ( .05 ) = .13 = 13%T8.10 Summary of Stock Valuation (Table 8.1)I. The General Case In general, the price today of a share of stock, P0, is the present value of all of its future dividends, D1, D2, D3, . . . D1 D2 D3 P0 = + + + (1 + R)1 (1 + R)2 (1 + R)3 where r is the required return.II. Constant Growth Case If the dividend grows at a steady rate, g, then the price can be written as: P0 = D1/(R - g) This result is the dividend growth model.T8.10 Summary of Stock Valuation (Table 8.1) (concluded)III. Supernormal Growth If the dividend grows steadily after t periods, then the price can be written as: D1 D2 Dt Pt P0 = + + . . . + + (1 + R)1 (1 + R)2 (1 + R)t (1 + R)t where Dt+1  (1 + g) P0 = (R - g) IV. The Required Return The required return, r, can be written as the sum of two things: R = D1/P0 + g where D1/P0 is the dividend yield and g is the capital gains yield (which is the same thing as the growth rate in dividends for the steady growth case).T8.11 Features of Common StockFeatures of Common Stock The right to vote - including major events like takeovers The right to share proportionally in dividends paid The right to share proportionally in assets remaining after liabilities have been paid, in event of a liquidation The preemptive rightDividends Not a liability until declared by the Board of Directors Unlike interest on debt, dividends are not tax deductible to the firm However, shareholder receipt of dividends does have preferential tax treatment (See Chapter 2)T8.11 Features of Common StockClasses of Stock Dual Class shares are becoming more commonplace Usually classes divide into voting and non-voting shares “Coattail” provisionally invoked at the time of a takeover Some dual class shares allow foreign investment without foreign controlT8.12 Features of Preferred StockFeatures of Preferred Stock Preferences over common stock - dividends, liquidation Dividend arrearages Cumulative and non-cumulative Stated/liquidating value Is preferred stock really debt? Preferred stock and taxes Tax treatment differs from debt Differential tax treatment suggests a preferred stock clienteleT8.13 Stock Market ReportingPrimary vs. secondary marketsGrowth opportunitiesShare price for a firm that pays in perpetuity all earnings as dividends but which has no growth opportunitiesP = EPS/r = Div/rShare price for the same firm with growth opportunitiesP = EPS/r + NPVGOWe can relate this to the Price earnings ratio by dividing the equation by EPS:P/E = 1/r + NPVGO/EPST8.14 Sample Stock Quotation from The National Post (Figure 8.1)Insert Figure 8.1Suppose a stock has just paid a $5 per share dividend. The dividend is projected to grow at 10% for the next two years, the 8% for one year, and then 6% indefinitely. The required return is 12%. What is the stock’s value? Time Dividend 0 $ 5.00 1 $ ____ (10% growth) 2 $ ____ (10% growth) 3 $6.534 ( __% growth) 4 $6.926 ( __% growth)T8.15 Chapter 8 Quick Quiz -- Part 3 of 3Suppose a stock has just paid a $5 per share dividend. The dividend is projected to grow at 10% for the next two years, the 8% for one year, and then 6% indefinitely. The required return is 12%. What is the stock’s value? Time Dividend 0 $ 5.00 1 $ 5.50 (10% growth) 2 $ 6.05 (10% growth) 3 $6.534 ( 8% growth) 4 $6.926 ( 6% growth)T8.15 Chapter 8 Quick Quiz -- Part 3 of 3T8.15 Chapter 8 Quick Quiz -- Part 3 of 3 (concluded)At time 3, the value of the stock will be: P3 = D4/(R - g) = $_____ /(.12 - .06) = $115.434The value today of the stock is thus: P0 = D1/(1 + R) + D2/(1 + R)2 + D3/(1 + R)3 + P3/(1 + R)3 = $5.5/1.12 + $6.05/1.122 + $6.534/1.123 + $115.434/1.12 = $96.55T8.15 Chapter 8 Quick Quiz -- Part 3 of 3 (concluded)At time 3, the value of the stock will be: P3 = D4/(R - g) = $6.926/(.12 - .06) = $115.434The value today of the stock is thus: P0 = D1/(1 + R) + D2/(1 + R)2 + D3/(1 + R)3 + P3/(1 + R)3 = $5.5/1.12 + $6.05/1.122 + $6.534/1.123 + $115.434/1.123 = $96.55T8.16 Solution to Problem 8.1Green Mountain, Inc. just paid a dividend of $2.00 per share on its stock. The dividends are expected to grow at a constant 5 percent per year indefinitely. If investors require a 12 percent return on Favre stock, what is the current price? What will the price be in 3 years? In 15 years?According to the constant growth model, P0 = D1/(R - g) = $2.00(1.05)/(.12 - .05) = $30.00If the constant growth model holds, the price of the stock will grow at g percent per year, so P3 = P0  (1 + g)3 = $30.00  (1.05)3 = $34.73, and P15 = P0  (1 + g)15 = $30.00  (1.05)15 = $62.37.T8.17 Solution to Problem 8.10Metallica Bearings, Inc. is a young start-up company. No dividends will be paid on the stock over the next 5 years. The company will pay a $6 per share dividend in six years and will increase the dividend by 5% per year thereafter. If the required return on this stock is 21%, what is the current share price?The current market price of any financial asset is the present value of its future cash flows, discounted at the appropriate required return. In this case, we know that: D1 = D2 = D3 = D4 = D5 = 0 D6 = $6.00 D7 = $6.00(1.05) = $6.30 . . .T8.17 Solution to Problem 8.10 (concluded)This share of stock represents a stream of cash flows with two important features: First, because they are expected to grow at a constant rate (once they begin), they are a growing perpetuity; Second, since the first cash flow is at time 6, the perpetuity is a deferred cash flow stream.Therefore, the answer requires two steps: 1. By the constant-growth model, D6/(r - g) = P5; i.e., P5 = $6.00/(.21 - .05) = $37.50. 2. And, P0 = P5 1/(1 + .21)5 = $37.50  .3855 = $14.46.