Tài chính doanh nghiệp - Chapter 7: Dividends and share repurchases: analysis

Chapter 7Dividends and Share repurchases: AnalysisPresenter’s namePresenter’s titledd Month yyyy1. IntroductionA payout policy is a set of principles regarding a corporation’s distributions to shareholders.May be established with regard to a dividend payout, a dividend per share, a growth in dividend per share, or any other metric.May include stock splits and stock dividends.May include stock repurchases. Copyright © 2013 CFA Institute22. Dividend Policy and Company Value: TheoryDividends Are IrrelevantBased on MM theories.If owners want a leveraged position, they can make it themselves.Bird in the HandCash dividends are more certain than stock appreciation.Tax ArgumentHow dividends are taxed relative to capital gains affects investors preferences for dividends.OtherClientele effect.Signaling.Agency cost effects.Copyright © 2013 CFA Institute3Dividends are irrelevantIn Miller and Modigliani’s (MM) world with no taxes, no transaction costs, and homogeneous information, dividend policy does not affect the value of the company.The decision of how a company finances its business is separate from the decision of what and how much to invest in capital projects.If an investor wants cash flow, he/she could sell some shares.If an investor wants more risk, he/she could borrow to invest. An investor is indifferent about a share repurchase or a dividend.Bottom line: Dividend policy does not affect a firm’s value.Copyright © 2013 CFA Institute4The Bird-in-the-Hand ArgumentInvestors prefer a cash dividend to uncertain capital gains.Hence, investors prefer the “bird in the hand.”Issue: Riskiness of the stock appreciation.If this explanation holds, a company that pays a cash dividend will have a higher value than a similar company that does not pay a cash dividend. Bottom line: Dividend policy affects the value of the firm.Copyright © 2013 CFA Institute5The Tax ArgumentIf dividends are taxed at a rate higher than capital gains, investors prefer that companies reinvest cash flow back into the firm.In other words, investors prefer the lower-taxed capital gains to the higher-taxed cash dividends.This advocates a zero dividend payout when dividends are taxed at a rate higher than that of capital gains.Bottom line: Dividend policy affects the value of the firm.Copyright © 2013 CFA Institute6The Clientele EffectThe clientele effect is the influence of groups of investors attracted to companies with specific dividend policies.Clientele are simply a group of investors who have the same preference.Types of clientele:If an investor has a marginal tax on capital gains lower than the marginal tax on dividends, the investor prefers a return in the form of capital gains.Investors who are tax exempt (e.g., pension funds) are indifferent about dividends and capital gains.Some investors, by policy or restrictions, only invest in stocks that pay dividends.The importance of the existence of clientele is that investors will have a preference for stocks with a specific dividend policy.Bottom line: The clientele effect does not necessarily imply that dividends affect value.Copyright © 2013 CFA Institute7Dividends and SignalingUnder MM’s theory, everyone has the same information.When there is asymmetric information, dividend changes may convey information.Copyright © 2013 CFA Institute8Positive InformationDividend initiationsDividend increasesNegative InformationDividend omissionsDividend reductionsAgency costs and Dividend policyThe separation of ownership and management in a corporation may lead to suboptimal investment.Management may invest in negative NPV projects to enhance the company’s size or management’s control.Jensen’s free cash flow hypothesis is that having free cash flow tempts management to make investments that are not positive NPV.Paying dividends or interest on debt uses this free cash flow and averts an agency issue.If a company’s debt has a restriction on paying dividends, it may avoid the issue of paying dividends (thus benefiting owners) and may increase the risk to bondholders.Bottom line: Dividends may reduce agency costs and, therefore, increase the value of the firm.Copyright © 2013 CFA Institute93. Factors Affecting Dividend policyInvestment OpportunitiesExpected Volatility of Future EarningsFinancial FlexibilityTax ConsiderationsFlotation CostsContractual and Legal RestrictionsCopyright © 2013 CFA Institute10Factors affecting dividend policyInvestment opportunities:A company with more investment opportunities will pay out less in dividends.A company with fewer investment opportunities will pay out more in dividends.Expected volatility of future earnings:Companies with greater earnings volatility are less likely to increase dividends—a greater chance of not maintaining the increased dividend.Financial flexibility:Companies seeking more flexibility are less likely to pay dividends or to increase dividends because they want to preserve cash.Copyright © 2013 CFA Institute11Factors affecting dividend policyTax considerationsThe tax rate on dividends and how dividends are taxed relative to capital gains affect investors’ preferences and, hence, companies’ dividend policy.Flotation costsThese costs make it more expensive to use newly issued stock instead of internally generated funds.Smaller companies face higher flotation costs.Contractual and legal restrictionsForms of restrictions:Impairment of capital ruleBond indenturesRequirement of preferred sharesCopyright © 2013 CFA Institute12Tax Systems and Dividend PolicyConsider a company that has earnings before tax of $100 million and pays all its earnings as dividends. The company’s tax rate is 35%, and individual shareholders have a marginal tax rate of 25%. In countries with a split-rate system, dividends are taxed at 28% at the corporate level.Copyright © 2013 CFA Institute13Double TaxationEarnings taxed at corporate level and dividends taxed at shareholder levelEffective tax on dividends = 51.25%Dividend ImputationEarnings taxed at corporate level and tax credit at shareholder levelEffective tax on dividends = 25%Split-Rate SystemEarnings distributed are taxed at a lower rate than retained earnings Effective tax on dividends = 46%4. Payout Policies Copyright © 2013 CFA Institute14Example: Payout PoliciesConsider the financial information for Apple, Inc. (AAPL)What are dividends for FY2011 and FY2012 if the company followed a stable dividend policy, with a target dividend payout of 10% and an adjustment factor of 0.3?Copyright © 2013 CFA Institute15Fiscal Year Ending9/29/20129/24/20119/25/2010Net income (millions)$41,773$25,922$14,014Fiscal Year Ending9/29/20129/24/2011Increase in earnings$15,851$11,900Multiply by target0.100.10Multiply by adjustment factor0.300.30Dividends$475.53$357.24Example: Payout PoliciesWhat are dividends for FY2011 and FY2012 if the company followed a constant dividend payout at 6%?What are dividends for FY2011 and FY2012 if the company followed the residual payout policy? Copyright © 2013 CFA Institute16Fiscal Year Ending9/29/20129/24/2011Net income (millions)$41,773$25,922Less: capital expenditures9,4027,452Dividends$32,371$18,470Fiscal Year Ending9/29/20129/24/2011Net income (millions)$41,773$25,922Multiply by 6%0.060.06Dividends$2,506$1,555.32Cash Dividends vs. Repurchasing StockCopyright © 2013 CFA Institute17Reasons for preferring repurchasing stock over paying a cash dividendPotential tax advantagesSignalingManagerial flexibilityOffset dilution from executive stock optionsIncrease financial leverageA stock repurchase may be a good alternative to an increase in cash dividends.Global Trends in Dividend PayoutCurrent:Large, profitable companies tend to have a stable payout policy.Smaller and/or less profitable companies tend to not be dividend paying.Trends:In developed companies, fewer companies pay cash dividends, but more companies are using stock repurchases.The dividend amounts and payouts have increased for dividend-paying companies, but the proportion of dividend-paying companies has declined.Copyright © 2013 CFA Institute18Dividend Coverage Ratios Copyright © 2013 CFA Institute195. Analysis of Dividend SafetyWe can evaluate the “safety” of the dividend by examining the company’s ability to meet its dividends.“Safety” pertains to the ability of the company to continue to pay the dividend or maintain a growth pattern.Possible ratios: Dividend coverage and free cash flow coverageUsing dividends plus repurchases may be more appropriate for some firms.Values greater than 1.0 indicate ability to meet the dividend and repurchase, although the greater the coverage, the greater the liquidity and ability to pay.It is sometimes difficult to predict changes in dividend because of “surprises,” such as the financial crisis. Copyright © 2013 CFA Institute206. SummaryThere are three general theories on investor preference for dividends: Dividend policy is irrelevant, the bird-in-hand argument, and the tax explanation.An argument for dividend irrelevance given perfect markets is that the corporate dividend policy is irrelevant because shareholders can create their preferred cash flow streams by selling any company’s shares.The clientele effect suggests that different classes of investors have differing preferences for dividend income. Dividend declarations may provide information to investors regarding the prospects of the company. The payment of dividends can help reduce the agency conflicts between managers and shareholders, but can worsen conflicts of interest between shareholders and debtholders.Copyright © 2013 CFA Institute21Summary (continued)Investment opportunities, the volatility expected in future earnings, financial flexibility, taxes, flotation costs, and contractual and legal restrictions affect dividend policies.Using a stable dividend policy, a company may attempt to align its dividend growth rate to the company’s long-term earnings growth rate. The stable dividend policy can be represented by a gradual adjustment process in which the expected dividend is equal to last year’s dividend per share, plus any adjustment.With a constant dividend payout ratio policy, a company applies a target dividend payout ratio to current earnings.In a residual dividend policy, the amount of the annual dividend is affected by both the earnings and the capital investment spending.Copyright © 2013 CFA Institute22Summary (continued)Share repurchases usually offer more flexibility than cash dividends by not establishing the expectation that a particular level of cash distribution will be maintained.Share repurchases can signal that company officials think their shares are undervalued. On the other hand, share repurchases could send a negative signal that the company has few positive NPV opportunities.The issue of dividend safety deals with the likelihood of the dividend being continued.Early warning signs of whether a company can sustain its dividend include the level of dividend yield, whether the company borrows to pay the dividend, and the company’s past dividend record.Copyright © 2013 CFA Institute23