Demographic transition in Bac Kan province - Vietnam period 1999-2009 and forecasting the one for the next 10 years

Trần Viết Khanh và đtg Tạp chí KHOA HỌC & CÔNG NGHỆ 84(08): 71 - 75 71 Số hóa bởi Trung tâm Học liệu – Đại học Thái Nguyên DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN BAC KAN PROVINCE - VIETNAM PERIOD 1999-2009 AND FORECASTING THE ONE FOR THE NEXT 10 YEARS Tran Viet Khanh 1 , Bui Thi Thanh Huong 2 , Ha Thi Bien, 3 1 Thainguyen University, 2 Hanoi College of Education, 3 Na Ri High school, Bac Kan province Bac Kan is one of the poorest provinces of Vietnam (GDP per capita is 390 USD), locates 170 km from Hanoi to the north. The natural area is 4,868.41 km2. The population of the province in 2009 was 295,000 people, average population density is 60.66 persons / km2. Bac Kan has seven ethnic groups living together. Incomes are mainly from agricultural products. The challenge today of Bac Kan is low labor quality, high rate of unemployment, unbalanced labor structure, gender, and high proportion of agricultural labor. This creates pressure on the development of local socio-economic. To solve this problem, the authors conducted a demographic study on population fluctuation of Bac Kan during period 1999 - 2009 to contribute to elucidate the structure of the population, birth rate, death rate and their impact to socio-economic development in Bac Kan province, to predicts the population and propose solutions for sustainable development to the population in 2019. Keywords: Population, Transition, Birth rate, Death rate, Bac Kan INTRODUCTION * Bac Kan is one of the poorest provinces of Vietnam (GDP / person / year - 2009 is $ 390 / person / year), that is far from Hanoi capital about 170 kilometers toward the north-east. It’s square area is 4868.41 km2. Province's population in 2009 was 295,296 people, the average population density is 60.66 persons/km2. There are seven ethnic groups living there (Kinh, Tay, Nung, Dao, San Chay, Mong, Hoa). Bac Kan separated from Bac Thai province in 1997. The main income comes from the province's agricultural production. But the biggest problem exists at present is low-level labor force, high unemployment rate, large unequal in economic structure and labor structure like imbalance gender, high rate labor of agriculture. The problem has created pressure to socio-economic development of the province. Researching demographic transition in Bac Kan period 1999 - 2009 contributed to understanding the evolution of crude birth and death rate, population structure and the effects of these fluctuations to economy and society. * Tel: 0912187118; Email: tranvietkhanhsp@yahoo.com Since then, the team predicted demographic transition of this province by 2019 and proposed the optimal population policy for sustainable development. 2. Objective - Researching demographic transition of Backan province from 1999 – 2009; - Analyzing impacts of this transition on economy and society in this province; - Forecasting demographic trend and impacts on the province until 2019. 3. Approaches & Methods - Analyzing statistics method from data of the General Statistics Office Vietnam - Investigating sociology and experts method - Field trip method combine with GIS - Forecasting method and analyzing system 4. 4. Results 4.1. Demographic transition of Backan province from 1999 - 2009 4.1.1. Dimension population After 10 years, dimension population of Backan province increased 18578 people and changed the age structure. Proportion of children in total population decreased 11,6% (from 36,1% down to 24,2%), proportion of elderly in total population (upper 60) increased 1,2% (from 7% to 8,2%), proportion of adult in total population (15- Trần Viết Khanh và đtg Tạp chí KHOA HỌC & CÔNG NGHỆ 84(08): 71 - 75 72 Số hóa bởi Trung tâm Học liệu – Đại học Thái Nguyên 60) increased very fast 10,4% ( from 56,9% to 67,3%). Comparing to Vietnam, South East Asia and the World, the dependent people rate is lower and proportion of adult in total population (15-60) is higher. Therefore, this population structure is young structure. It made potential for developing but also pressure for many social problems in the poverty province. According to the report of GSO Vietnam, the age index of the province increased quite fast 14% (from 20% to 34%). It is those changing, affected directly on GDP per person per year (increased slowly 290 USD/person/year, after 10 years) and unemployment rate (increased 2,53% from 12,5% to 15,03%). In addition, the poverty rate is still high level (upper 50%). Those problems are the evidences for pressure of the large dimension population on economy and society of this province. 4.1.2. Crude birth rate (per 1,000 population) The total number of births in a population during a given period divided by the total number of person-years lived by the population during that period, generally approximated by the size of the population at the mid-point of the period multiplied by the length of the period in years [6]. Presented per 1,000 people for ten-year periods, crude birth rate of this province decreased 5,8‰, decreased than the average of Vietnam is 3 ‰. According to figure 2, the crude birth rates in the period 1997 to 2009 decreased slowly, death rates decreased in the late 90s of last century and have stable trend from 2006 up to now. Fertility rate (TFR - live births per women), the number of children a woman would have by the end of her reproductive period if she experienced the current prevailing age- specific fertility rates throughout her childbearing life [6]. In 1999, TFR of BacKan province is 2,61 live births per women and in 2009 TFR is 1,84 live birth per women and especially, the birth rate has fallen below replacement level (2.1 children per woman) and faster and lower the average decrease of Vietnam is 0.5 children per woman. This demonstrates that success of the programs on population and family planning in the province. In addition, enhancing life quality has been formed the enjoyment of life style, afraid of having lots of babies. Obviously, economic development has influenced or inversely proportional to the province's birth rate. Table 1. Comparison demographic transition of Backan province with Vietnam, South East Asia and the World Targets Unit Backan province Vietnam South East Asia 2008 World (2008) 1999 2009 Change 1999 2009 Change Total population 1000 people 2,75165 2,93826 0,18 67500262 85,79 9,467 575626 67500262 Density People/ km2 56 60 4 - 259 28 - - Population sex ratio women/ 100 men 100,01 99,03 -0,8 98 101.9 -1,7 101 98 Crude birth rate (CBR) ‰ 21,83 16.06 -5,8 20,2 17,6 -2,3 19,3 20,2 Fertility rate (TFR) Live birth per women 2,61 1,84 -0,8 2,6 2,03 -0,3 2,3 2,6 Crude death rate (CDR) ‰ 7,23 4,84 -2,4 8,5 6,8 1,2 6,5 8,5 Infant mortality rate (IMR) ‰ 49,61 11,87 -37,7 16 -20,7 Population growth rate (PGR) % 1,09 0,94 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,3 1,3 1,2 Proportion of children in % 36,1 24,5 -11,6 27,4 36,6 -17,6 28 27,4 Trần Viết Khanh và đtg Tạp chí KHOA HỌC & CÔNG NGHỆ 84(08): 71 - 75 73 Số hóa bởi Trung tâm Học liệu – Đại học Thái Nguyên total population (0-14) Proportion of elderly in total population (upper 60) % 7 8,2 1,2 7,4 9,7 0,3 5,7 7,4 Proportion of adult in total population (15-60) % 56,9 67,3 10,4 65,2 53,7 -1,5 66,3 65,2 Source: GSO Vietnam, ESCAP Statistic 4.1.3. Crude death rate (per 1,000 population) The ratio of the number of deaths occurring during a calendar year to the number exposed to the risk of dying during the same period, equivalent to the mean population or average population for the period [6]. Presented per 1,000 people for ten-year periods from 1999 – 2009, crude death rate (CDR) decreased 2,4‰, while the rate in Vietnam has increased 1.2%. According to figure 2, CDR increased slightly from 5.18 ‰ to 6.77 ‰ in 1999 to 2009. Period from 1999 to 2004, death rates kept steady from 6.77 ‰ to 7.04 ‰. Period 2004 to present, death rates decreased and stabilized at approximately above, below 5 ‰. Infant mortality rate (IMR) indicates the number of deaths of babies under one year of age per 1,000 live births. The rate in a given region, therefore, is the total number of newborns dying under one year of age divided by the total number of live births during the year, then all multiplied by 1,000. The infant mortality rate is also called the infant death rate (per 1,000 live births)[7]. According to table 1, after 10 years, IMR decreased 37,7‰, much lower than the national average. Specifically, IMR in highland and ethnic areas is still quite high, high fluctuation, below 50 ‰. 4.1.4. Population growth rate (PGR) In demographics, population growth rate (PGR) is the fractional rate at which the number of individuals in a population increases. Specifically, PGR ordinarily refers to the change in population over a unit time period, often expressed as a percentage of the number of individuals in the population at the beginning of that period [7]. Population growth rate is calculated by the natural growth rate and increased mechanization. According to figure 1, PGR of Bac Kan in 1999 compared to 1998 was 2,2%, in 2009 compared to 2008 is 0,1% and in the period 1999 to 2009 was 0,7% while the country is 2%. Therefore, on average each year, Bac Kan province's population increased over 2000 people. While the province's GDP growth rate is lower than the potential (raised slowly - 15691423 USD / year) while rates of population increase. This pressure on socio-economic problems such as overloading classes (from 25 children per class in 1999 up to 37 children per class in 2009) in kinder garden, the overloading of the hospital (from 0.7 patients / bed / day - up to 1.78 in 1999 patient / bed / day in 2009). Moreover, the administration of this province raised on spending educational GDP from 6% in 1999 to 7.8% in 2009, mainly for the construction of kinder gardens, primary schools (51 new kinder gardens, 19 primary schools). According to figure 1, PGR is complicated fluctuations, down steadily from 1999 to 2005, down sharply from 2006 to now, even down to 1.6% in 2008. The main cause leading to the decrease in dimension population is high migration rate (leave to Central Highlands (for mining), to big cities (academic and employer). 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Trần Viết Khanh và đtg Tạp chí KHOA HỌC & CÔNG NGHỆ 84(08): 71 - 75 74 Số hóa bởi Trung tâm Học liệu – Đại học Thái Nguyên 4.1.5. Population sex ratio (women per 100 men) The number of women divided by the number of me n in the total population, expressed per 100 men. In 2009, proportion of men in total population is 50,51%. According to table 1, in Backan province, after 10 years, the ratio decreased 0,8 women/100 men. That means the number of men is growing. This problem will impact on making plan for economic development of the province. Bakan province - Vietnam 1999 Figure 3. Population (in thousands) Bakan province - Vietnam 2009 Figure 4. Population (in thousands) 4.2. Forecasting demographic transition for next 10 years Forecasting for next 10 years, in 2019 dimension population is 3378984,CBR is 12,7 ‰, CDR is 4,2 ‰, NIR is 8,5‰. However, PGR will still change unstable (increase or decrease around 0,6%). Proportion of children will decrease around 20,8% total population, proportion of adult will increase around 69% and proportion of elderly will increase fast about 10,2% total population. This problem will cause pressure on infrastructure, environment (degradation soil, square of agriculture land/person, polluted water) and economy (GDP/person and food/person improve slowly). Besides, San Chay ethnic group will tend to decrease and the loss of qualified workers are concerned issue for the social and economic development of the province. 5. Solutions - Developing economy, focus on the industries need many labors - Enhancing education population for habitants especially for poor people - Controlling migration rate, restricting free migration to big cities - Increasing life standard, caring women health. 6. Conclusion - Dimension population change unstable as the free migration and unemployment rate was very high in the poorest province - NIR decreased as CBR and CDR decreased. - The sex ratio in some district was imbalance. - Although life expectancy at birth was increased but life standard was low level. 20 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ 5 15 10 5 0 10 15 20 0 men women 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ women men 5 15 10 5 0 10 15 20 0 20 Trần Viết Khanh và đtg Tạp chí KHOA HỌC & CÔNG NGHỆ 84(08): 71 - 75 75 Số hóa bởi Trung tâm Học liệu – Đại học Thái Nguyên - Forecasting for next 10 years, CBR and CDR will continue decrease but PGR will still unstable. Risk of reducing NIR of San Chay group will warn degradation of the ethnic group. REFERENCES [1]. Bac Kan Department of Statistics, Yearbook of Bac Kan Province, in 2001, 2004, 2009. [2]. Publishers of national politics, population and sustainable development in Vietnam, 8 / 2004. [3]. Bac Kan province, Census of population and housing 01/04/2009, 12/2009. [4]. Bac Kan province, the master plan on socio-economic development in Bac Kan province to 2020, 3 / 2008. [5]. [6]. [7]. TÓM TẮT BIẾN ĐỘNG DÂN SỐ TỈNH BẮC KẠN GIAI ĐOẠN 1999 - 2009 VÀ DỰ BÁO DÂN SỐ TRONG 10 NĂM TIẾP THEO Trần Viết Khanh1*, Bùi Thị Thanh Hương2, Hà Thị Biên3 1Đại học Thái Nguyên, 2Trường CĐ Sư phạm Hà Nội , 3Trường PTTH Na Rì tỉnh Bắc Kạn Bắc Kạn là một trong những tỉnh nghèo nhất Việt Nam (GDP/người/năm là 390 USD), nằm cách thủ đô Hà Nội 170 km về phía bắc với diện tích tự nhiên là 4868,41 km2. Dân số của tỉnh năm 2009 là 295.000 người, mật độ dân số trung bình là 60,66 người/ km2. Bắc Kạn có 7 dân tộc anh em cùng sinh sống. Thu nhập chính của người dân chủ yếu từ sản phẩm nông nghiệp. Vấn đề khó khăn nhất hiện nay đối với Bắc Kạn là lực lượng lạo động có trình độ thấp, tỷ lệ thất nghiệp cao, sự không cân đối giữa cơ cấu nguồn lao động, giới tính, và tỷ lệ lực lượng lao động nông nghiệp cao. Điều này tạo nên sức ép cho phát triển KT- XH địa phương. Để giải quyết vấn đề này, nhóm tác giả đã tiến hành nghiên cứu biến động dân số Bắc Kạn giai đoạn 1999 – 2009 nhằm góp phần làm sáng tỏ cấu trúc dân số, tỷ lệ sinh, tỷ lệ tử và ảnh hưởng của chúng tới phát triển KT-XH tỉnh Bắc Kạn, từ đó dự đoán sự biến động dân số và đề ra các giải pháp phát triển dân số bền vững đến năm 2019. Từ khóa: Dân số, Biến động, tỷ lệ sinh, tỷ lệ tử, Bắc Kạn. * Tel: 0912187118; Email: tranvietkhanhsp@yahoo.com Trần Viết Khanh và đtg Tạp chí KHOA HỌC & CÔNG NGHỆ 84(08): 71 - 75 76 Số hóa bởi Trung tâm Học liệu – Đại học Thái Nguyên